2011年12月31日土曜日

The year 2011

The end of year is approaching. Looking back, this year has been extremely eventful. The 3.11 earthquake and tsunami devastated the north eastern part of Japan, leaving tens of thousands of people dead and missing. Not only that, the tsunami also dealt a fatal blow to the nuclear power plants in Fukushima, resulting in the worst nuclear disaster since Chernobyl. The lives of people across the nation have deeply been affected by the shortage of power and, more seriously, by a fear of radioactive materials. The words ordinary people had probably never heard of, like the rolling blackouts, cesium and iodine, have become familiar, along with the notorious gobbledygook “not immediately dangerous.” Not surprisingly, a large number of people have begun to throw doubt on the legitimacy of nuclear power itself, spurring a frenzy of debates about whether we shouldn’t jettison such a precarious source of electricity.

These considerations might tempt you to think that 2011 has been particularly eventful for Japan. Yes, Japan has experienced a great deal enough, but if you step back and look around the world, it’s obvious that the world too has witnessed its share of great historic moments. Especially, the Arab Spring, which began with the revolution in Tunisia and spread like wildfire around the Arab world, has been a dramatic development in that it has ousted infamous dictators who had long exploited their countries. The effect of this phenomenon has gone well beyond the region, influencing countries like China, which, fearing the same type of uprising in its midst, has enforced a stricter crackdown on those critical of the government.

You must also recall the death of the world most dangerous terrorist leader, Osama bin Laden, the mastermind of the 9.11 terror attack. That he had ensconced himself in a Pakistani town near Islamabad infuriated the U.S. government, who had long accused Pakistan of failing to provide full support to the U.S.-led war on terror. That the U.S. army conducted the operation to capture or kill bin Laden without consulting the Pakistani government caused ire among Pakistanis, who had denounced the CIA drone operation in the country’s terrorist safe haven as an infringement of its sovereignty. The relations between two countries have since deeply deteriorated.

Nor has this year been anticlimactic, for it was announced toward the end of this month that the dictator of North Korea, Kim Jong ill, passed away, a news that took people around the world by surprise. During Mr. Kim’s reign, the communist country, which some described as a remnant of the Cold War, had pursued its Songun (that is, military first) policy, resorting to many saber-rattling activities such as missile tests and nuclear development. Alternating between conciliatory and belligerent attitudes, Mr. Kim demonstrated to the world what brinkmanship was all about, as if to make a mockery of Japan, which, cowering before other countries, had failed in its diplomatic policies. The international community is now paying attention to his third son, Kim Jong un, who is the heir apparent and has been groomed by the elder Kim since 2008, when he reportedly suffered a stroke. That the younger Kim had been almost unknown before 2008, or that he is extremely young and probably inexperienced, has caused many experts to speculate over whether he can solidify his power enough to establish his status as the legitimate heir without appealing to any kind of power sharing.

Taken together, 2011 has seen such important developments, the influence of which will continue in the coming years or even decades, that the future historians might regard this year as a turning point in world history. But that’s anybody’s guess. Even if we could predict what impact they will have on the world from now on, we would have little power to change their course. As the 3.11 disaster mercilessly has shown, we are utterly helpless in the face of natural or historic currents. All we can do is live timorously, aware of our constant vulnerability but almost comically incapable of letting go of our mortal coils. Shorn of all the embellishments, that is what it means to live.

Another year will come, whether it is happy or not.

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